Forecasting Unemployment in Greece

Introduction

Background

Time series

Procedure

Short Answer

If you are in a hurry, I predicted that unemployment on Greece is expected to further reduce. It will range between 10% - 13% in February, 2023.

Prerequisites

Import Libraries

For this analysis we will need standard libraries for importing and processing my data, such as readr (Wickham, Hester, & Bryan, 2024) and dplyr (Wickham, François, Henry, Müller, & Vaughan, 2023). The kableExtra (Zhu, 2024) package was used to print the results in table format, while the flextable (Gohel & Skintzos, 2024) package was used to print the results of the Dickey-Fuller and KPSS tests.

Then, due to the nature of the data (time series) it was deemed necessary to use relevant libraries such as lubridate(Spinu, Grolemund, & Wickham, 2024), tseries(Trapletti & Hornik, 2024) & forecast(R. Hyndman et al., 2024) packages.

Finally, the ggplot2 (Wickham, Chang, et al., 2024) package was used to create some visualizations, as well as an auxiliary package, ggtext (Wilke & Wiernik, 2022), for further formatting those.

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# General purpose R libraries
library(dplyr)
library(readr)
library(kableExtra)
library(flextable)


# Graphs
library(ggplot2)
library(ggtext) # Add support for HTML/CSS on ggplot
library(highcharter)

# Time Series 

library(lubridate)
library(tseries)
library(forecast)

# Other settings
options(digits=2) # print only 2 decimals

Import dataset

After loading the libraries I am able to use the commands of the readr package to import my data. My data is in .csv format, so I’ll use the read_csv() command (Wickham, Hester, et al., 2024) to import them.

Additionally, I choose not to include EA-19 values (as I investigate Greece’s unemployment).

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unemployment <- read_csv("data/unemployment.csv") %>%
  select(LOCATION, TIME, Value) %>% filter(LOCATION != "EA19")

Preview Dataset

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head(unemployment, 10) %>%
  kbl(., 
    align = 'c',
    booktabs = T,
    centering = T,
    valign = T) %>%
  kable_styling()

Table 1: Preview Dataset (first 6 rows)

LOCATION	TIME	Value
GRC	1998-04	11
GRC	1998-05	11
GRC	1998-06	11
GRC	1998-07	11
GRC	1998-08	11
GRC	1998-09	11
GRC	1998-10	11
GRC	1998-11	11
GRC	1998-12	11
GRC	1999-01	11

Dataset Structure

Our dataset is consisted by 3 variables (columns). More specifically, concerning my variables, are as follows :

Variable	Property	Description
`LOCATION`	qualitative (nominal)	Specific country’s statistics
`TIME`	qualitative (ordinal)	Month of the reported data
`Value`	quantitative (continuous)	Unemployment at the given Time and Country

Thus, my sample has 3 variables, of which 2 are qualitative and 1 is quantitative property.

Time Series Preprocessing

The TIME variable needs to be a Date variable which is not fulfilled on our case.

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sapply(unemployment, class) %>% 
  kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

	x
LOCATION	character
TIME	character
Value	numeric

So, above I see that I have dates in a format “YYYY-MM” (Year - Month) and they are considered as characters. With the help of lubridate package I will convert my time series on a Date format.

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unemployment$TIME <- lubridate::ym(unemployment$TIME)

And let’s check again :

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sapply(unemployment, class) %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

	x
LOCATION	character
TIME	Date
Value	numeric

And now I got the Date format. I am able to continue my analysis.

Missing Values

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sum(is.na(unemployment))

Good news! On this dataset there are 0 missing values, in total.

In case the dataset had missing values, I would first look at which variables those were.In a second phase, it might be necessary to replace the missing values.

Descriptive Statistics

The unemployment data for Greece refer to the period from April 1998 το August 2022. Regarding Europe we have data from January 2000 to August 2022.

The last 20 years have seen particularly large changes mainly in Greece, due to the domestic economic crisis. There is a noticeable change between September 2010 (10.1%) and September 2013 (28.1 %), in terms of unemployment in Greece. For the record, below you can find a table with the months that presented the highest unemployment in Greece. As you will notice the five highest values were observed in 2013.

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unemployment %>% dplyr::filter(LOCATION == "GRC") %>% select(TIME, Value) %>% as.data.frame() %>%
  arrange(Value) %>% tail(5) %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

	TIME	Value
289	2013-11-01	28
290	2013-04-01	28
291	2013-05-01	28
292	2013-07-01	28
293	2013-09-01	28

Accordingly, the highest unemployment rates observed at the European level are the following:

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unemployment %>% dplyr::filter(LOCATION == "EU27_2020") %>% select(TIME, Value)  %>%
  as.data.frame() %>% arrange(Value) %>% tail(5) %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

	TIME	Value
268	2013-06-01	12
269	2013-01-01	12
270	2013-02-01	12
271	2013-03-01	12
272	2013-04-01	12

The lowest unemployment ever recorded in Greece was in the period of 2008:

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unemployment %>% dplyr::filter(LOCATION == "GRC") %>% select(TIME, Value) %>% as.data.frame() %>%
  arrange(Value) %>% head(5) %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

TIME	Value
2008-05-01	7.4
2008-06-01	7.6
2008-07-01	7.6
2008-10-01	7.6
2008-01-01	7.7

On the other hand, at the moment in Europe we are at the lowest levels of the last 20 years, with unemployment hovering around 6%.

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unemployment %>% dplyr::filter(LOCATION == "EU27_2020") %>% select(TIME, Value) %>%
  as.data.frame() %>% arrange(Value) %>% head(5) %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling(full_width = F, position = "center")

TIME	Value
2022-07-01	6.0
2022-08-01	6.0
2022-04-01	6.1
2022-05-01	6.1
2022-06-01	6.1

Finally, it is evident that in the case of Greece the changes are more intense than in Europe.

All of the above can be summarized by the following graph:

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g = unemployment %>%
  mutate(Year = year(TIME)) %>%
  group_by(LOCATION, Year) %>%
  summarise(mean_unemployment = mean(Value))

`summarise()` has grouped output by 'LOCATION'. You can override using the
`.groups` argument.

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highchart() %>%
    hc_chart(type = "line") %>%
    hc_title(text = "Unemployment Rates") %>%
    hc_xAxis(title = list(text = "Year")) %>%
    hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Value")) %>%
    hc_tooltip(shared = TRUE, valueDecimals = 2, valueSuffix = " %") %>%
    hc_add_series(
        data = g,
        type = "line",
        hcaes(x = Year, y = mean_unemployment, group = LOCATION)
    ) %>%
  hc_plotOptions(
  series = list(
    dataLabels = list(
      enabled = TRUE,
      formatter = JS("function() {
        if (this.point.index === this.series.data.length - 1) {
          return this.y.toFixed(2) + ' %';
        }
        return null;
      }")
    )
  )
)

Examine trend and seasonality

In time series analysis, it’s important to distinguish where the variability in the final form of the series originates from. Time series consist of three main components: trend, seasonality, and randomness. The trend refers to whether the series shows a specific direction (upward/downward). Seasonality refers to recurring patterns at regular intervals.

y_t = S_t + T_t + E_t Όπου:

y_t δηλώνουν τα δεδομένα που έχουμε διαθέσιμα,
S_t
T_t
E_t

Similarly, the multiplicative model is defined:

y_t = S_t \cdot T_t \cdot E_t

where the components that make up the time series are multiplied instead of added.

Examine stationarity

Definition of stationarity

An important concept in studying time series is stationarity. A time series is called stationary (“Applied Time Series Analysis,” n.d.) if:

E(X_t):\text{constant}
Var(X_t): \text{constant}
Cov(X_t, X_s): \text{constant}

Examine Stationarity Graphically

It is apparent that there is a big variation on the values of unemployment. This time series is not stationary and the differencing is justified.

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highchart() %>%
    hc_chart(type = "line") %>%
    hc_title(text = "Unemployment Rates") %>%
    hc_xAxis(title = list(text = "Year")) %>%
    hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Value")) %>%
    hc_tooltip(shared = TRUE, valueDecimals = 2, valueSuffix = " %") %>%
    hc_add_series(
        data = g,
        type = "line",
        hcaes(x = Year, y = mean_unemployment, group = LOCATION)
    ) %>%
  hc_plotOptions(
  series = list(
    dataLabels = list(
      enabled = TRUE,
      formatter = JS("function() {
        if (this.point.index === this.series.data.length - 1) {
          return this.y.toFixed(2) + ' %';
        }
        return null;
      }")
    )
  )
)

Here we can see a big improvement in comparison with original data. I have some concerns about points close to 150 (mildly upwards trend) and 250 (outlier).

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grc_unemployment = unemployment %>% dplyr::filter(LOCATION == "GRC")
grc_unemployment_diff1 <- diff(grc_unemployment$Value, differences = 1)

highchart() %>%
    hc_chart(type = "line") %>%
    hc_title(text = "Unemployment Rates") %>%
    hc_xAxis(title = list(text = "Year")) %>%
    hc_yAxis(title = list(text = "Value")) %>%
    hc_tooltip(shared = TRUE, valueDecimals = 2, valueSuffix = " %") %>%
    hc_add_series(
        data = grc_unemployment_diff1
    )

Given the concerns of above, I made also a second difference plot. It seems to solve the problem on points close to 150.

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grc_unemployment_diff2<- diff(grc_unemployment$Value, differences = 2)

plot(grc_unemployment_diff2, type = "l")

Examine Stationarity with Statistical tests

The graphical interpretation of stationarity can be beneficial for a quick assessment on topic of stationarity. However it can be considered a subjective metric, which leads on a non consistent decision (someone may consider the second figure as stationary and some others not.

Thankfully, there are some statistical tests which can help us on our decisions. Some commonly used are :

Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test
Phillips- Perron (PP) test
Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) test
Zivot-Andrews (ZA) test

But an other problem arises. We are not in a fancy IDE with menus and checkboxes. We use R and its packages. There are many packages that have already write functions to study stationarity with the aforementioned tests. Some of them are:

tseries
urca
CADFtest

We should carefully evaluate our choices, as these packages advertise similar functionality but differ significantly in the scope of their functions and, more importantly, in the level of flexibility they offer for handling time series characteristics. In short, the tseries package is the one I’m most familiar with, but it is also the most limited in terms of configurable parameters. Although many tutorials use this package, I found that I couldn’t set the number of lags for tests or specify characteristics like trends when applicable. On the other hand, the urca package addresses these limitations by allowing users to specify both the trend component and the number of lags in the respective tests. One minor drawback of urca, however, is that it only provides critical values, not p-values.

Summary

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summary_stationarity_results <- data.frame(
                             "Type" = c("levels", "Diff(GRC)", "Diff2(GRC)"),
                             "ADF test" = c("Non Stationary", "Stationary", "Stationary"),
                              "PP test" = c("Non Stationary", "Stationary", "Stationary"),
                             "KPSS test" =c("Non Stationary", "Non Stationary", "Stationary")
)


summary_stationarity_results  %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling()

Type	ADF.test	PP.test	KPSS.test
levels	Non Stationary	Non Stationary	Non Stationary
Diff(GRC)	Stationary	Stationary	Non Stationary
Diff2(GRC)	Stationary	Stationary	Stationary

ADF test

One of the most

H_0 : \text{The time series has a unit root} \\ H_1 : \text{The time series has not a unit root} Selecting the lags

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library(vars)

Loading required package: MASS


Attaching package: 'MASS'

The following object is masked from 'package:dplyr':

    select

Loading required package: strucchange

Loading required package: zoo


Attaching package: 'zoo'

The following objects are masked from 'package:base':

    as.Date, as.Date.numeric

Loading required package: sandwich

Loading required package: urca

Loading required package: lmtest


Attaching package: 'lmtest'

The following object is masked _by_ '.GlobalEnv':

    unemployment

The following object is masked from 'package:highcharter':

    unemployment

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G = VARselect(grc_unemployment$Value, lag.max = 20, type = "const")

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get_adf_results = function(variable){

    # Ensure variable is numeric (e.g., a time series or numeric vector)
    if (!is.numeric(variable)) {
        stop("Input variable must be numeric.")
    }
    
    # Perform ADF tests
    adf_orig = adf.test(variable)
    adf_diff1 = adf.test(diff(variable, differences = 1))
    adf_diff2 = adf.test(diff(variable, differences = 2))
    
    # Extract results
    adf_table = data.frame(
        "Transformation" = c("Level", "1st Difference", "2nd Difference"),
        "Dickey-Fuller" = c(
            adf_orig$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller"]],
            adf_diff1$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller"]],
            adf_diff2$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller"]]
        ),
        "Lag Order" = c(
            adf_orig$parameter[["Lag order"]],
            adf_diff1$parameter[["Lag order"]],
            adf_diff2$parameter[["Lag order"]]
        ),
        "p-value" = c(
            adf_orig$p.value,
            adf_diff1$p.value,
            adf_diff2$p.value
        )
    ) %>%
        kbl(digits = 5) %>%
        kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)
    
    return(adf_table)
}

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get_adf_results(grc_unemployment$Value)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller test results
Transformation	Dickey.Fuller	Lag.Order	p.value
Level	-0.93	6	0.948
1st Difference	-3.51	6	0.042
2nd Difference	-9.49	6	0.010

Συνεπώς, είναι προφανές από τα αποτελέσματα του στατιστικού ελέγχου Dickey Fuller ότι η χρονοσειρά μου δεν είναι στάσιμη. Θα πρέπει να εφαρμόσω τον έλεγχο Dickey-Fuller στις δοαφορές.

PP test

H_0 : \text{The time series has a unit root} \\ H_1 : \text{The time series has not a unit root}

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get_pp_results = function(variable){

    # Ensure variable is numeric (e.g., a time series or numeric vector)
    if (!is.numeric(variable)) {
        stop("Input variable must be numeric.")
    }
    
    # Perform ADF tests
    pp_orig = pp.test(variable)
    pp_diff1 = pp.test(diff(variable, differences = 1))
    pp_diff2 = pp.test(diff(variable, differences = 2))
    
    # Extract results
    pp_table = data.frame(
        "Transformation" = c("Level", "1st Difference", "2nd Difference"),
        "Phillips-Perron" = c(
            pp_orig$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha)"]],
            pp_diff1$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha)"]],
            pp_diff2$statistic[["Dickey-Fuller Z(alpha)"]]
        ),
        "Lag Order" = c(
            pp_orig[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]],
            pp_diff1[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]],
            pp_diff2[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]]
        ),
        "p-value" = c(
            pp_orig$p.value,
            pp_diff1$p.value,
            pp_diff2$p.value
        )
    ) %>%
        kbl(digits = 5) %>%
        kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)
    
    return(pp_table)
}

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get_pp_results(grc_unemployment$Value)

Phillips-Perron test results
Transformation	Phillips.Perron	Lag.Order	p.value
Level	0.19	5	0.99
1st Difference	-279.81	5	0.01
2nd Difference	-337.13	5	0.01

KPSS test

H_0 : \text{The time series has not a unit root} \\ H_1 : \text{Alternatively}

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get_kpss_results = function(variable){

    # Ensure variable is numeric (e.g., a time series or numeric vector)
    if (!is.numeric(variable)) {
        stop("Input variable must be numeric.")
    }
    
    # Perform ADF tests
    kpss_orig = kpss.test(variable)
    kpss_diff1 = kpss.test(diff(variable, differences = 1))
    kpss_diff2 = kpss.test(diff(variable, differences = 2))
    
    # Extract results
    pp_table = data.frame(
        "Transformation" = c("Level", "1st Difference", "2nd Difference"),
        "KPSS" = c(
            kpss_orig[["statistic"]][["KPSS Level"]],
            kpss_diff1[["statistic"]][["KPSS Level"]],
            kpss_diff2[["statistic"]][["KPSS Level"]]
        ),
        "Lag Order" = c(
            kpss_orig[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]],
            kpss_diff1[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]],
            kpss_diff2[["parameter"]][["Truncation lag parameter"]]
        ),
        "p-value" = c(
            kpss_orig$p.value,
            kpss_diff1$p.value,
            kpss_diff2$p.value
        )
    ) %>%
        kbl(digits = 5) %>%
        kable_styling(full_width = FALSE)
    
    return(pp_table)
}

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get_kpss_results(grc_unemployment$Value)

KPSS test results
Transformation	KPSS	Lag.Order	p.value
Level	2.537	5	0.010
1st Difference	0.595	5	0.023
2nd Difference	0.014	5	0.100

Identify Model

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par(mfrow = c(1, 2))

acf(grc_unemployment$Value)
pacf(grc_unemployment$Value )

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par(mfrow = c(1, 2))

acf(grc_unemployment_diff1 )
pacf(grc_unemployment_diff1 )

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par(mfrow = c(1, 2))

acf(grc_unemployment_diff2 )
pacf(grc_unemployment_diff2 )

Build Time Series Model

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grc_unemployment = grc_unemployment %>% dplyr::select(Value)
auto_model <- auto.arima(grc_unemployment, trace = T,seasonal = TRUE)


 Fitting models using approximations to speed things up...

 ARIMA(2,2,2)                    : 302
 ARIMA(0,2,0)                    : 474
 ARIMA(1,2,0)                    : 405
 ARIMA(0,2,1)                    : 298
 ARIMA(1,2,1)                    : 301
 ARIMA(0,2,2)                    : 300
 ARIMA(1,2,2)                    : 302

 Now re-fitting the best model(s) without approximations...

 ARIMA(0,2,1)                    : 297

 Best model: ARIMA(0,2,1)

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auto_model

Series: grc_unemployment 
ARIMA(0,2,1) 

Coefficients:
         ma1
      -0.908
s.e.   0.023

sigma^2 = 0.16:  log likelihood = -146
AIC=297   AICc=297   BIC=304

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arimaModel_1=arima(grc_unemployment, order=c(0,1,2))
arimaModel_1


Call:
arima(x = grc_unemployment, order = c(0, 1, 2))

Coefficients:
        ma1    ma2
      0.145  0.076
s.e.  0.059  0.057

sigma^2 estimated as 0.171:  log likelihood = -157,  aic = 320

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arimaModel_2=arima(grc_unemployment, order=c(1,1,2))
arimaModel_2


Call:
arima(x = grc_unemployment, order = c(1, 1, 2))

Coefficients:
        ar1     ma1    ma2
      0.971  -0.905  0.017
s.e.  0.019   0.067  0.063

sigma^2 estimated as 0.157:  log likelihood = -144,  aic = 296

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arimaModel_3=arima(grc_unemployment, order=c(9,2,1))
arimaModel_3


Call:
arima(x = grc_unemployment, order = c(9, 2, 1))

Coefficients:
        ar1    ar2    ar3    ar4    ar5    ar6     ar7     ar8     ar9    ma1
      -0.79  -0.71  -0.67  -0.69  -0.59  -0.38  -0.316  -0.446  -0.270  -0.15
s.e.   0.17   0.15   0.15   0.14   0.14   0.12   0.088   0.072   0.069   0.18

sigma^2 estimated as 0.139:  log likelihood = -127,  aic = 276

Compare Models

After building some ARIMA models, I should decide which is the best one to make my estimations. One metric to evaluate those models is AIC (Akaike Information Criterion). The lower the value of AIC, the better my model.

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accuracy_table <- data.frame(
                             "Name of Model" = c("Auto Model", "ARIMA Candidate #1", "ARIMA Candidate #2", "ARIMA Candidate #3"),
                             Model = c("ARIMA(0,2,1)", "ARIMA(0,1,2)", "ARIMA(1,1,2)", "ARIMA(9,2,1)"),
                             AIC =c(auto_model$aic, arimaModel_1$aic, arimaModel_2$aic, arimaModel_3$aic)
)


accuracy_table %>% kbl() %>% kable_styling()

Name.of.Model	Model	AIC
Auto Model	ARIMA(0,2,1)	297
ARIMA Candidate #1	ARIMA(0,1,2)	320
ARIMA Candidate #2	ARIMA(1,1,2)	296
ARIMA Candidate #3	ARIMA(9,2,1)	276

So, the best model is the Auto Model (ARIMA(9,2,1)), which has the lowest AIC value.

Checking best models

Forecast Future Unemployment

Previously, I identify which is the best model. Now, I will use this model in order to predict unemployment for the next 6 months. It should be recalled that the last available value was from August of 2022 (12.2%). Therefore, I will make a prediction for unemployment in Greece until February 2023.

ARIMA (0,2,1) forecasts

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forecast(auto_model,6) %>% autoplot()

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forecast(auto_model,6) %>% kbl() %>% kable_paper()

	Point Forecast	Lo 80	Hi 80	Lo 95	Hi 95
294	12	11.5	13	11.2	13
295	12	11.1	13	10.7	13
296	12	10.7	13	10.2	13
297	12	10.3	13	9.7	13
298	11	10.0	13	9.2	13
299	11	9.6	13	8.8	14

ARIMA (9,2,1) forecasts

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forecast(arimaModel_3,6) %>% autoplot()

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forecast(arimaModel_3,6) %>% kbl() %>% kable_paper()

	Point Forecast	Lo 80	Hi 80	Lo 95	Hi 95
294	12	11	12	11.1	13
295	12	11	13	10.9	13
296	12	11	13	10.7	13
297	12	11	13	10.1	13
298	12	10	13	9.8	13
299	12	10	13	9.4	14

Results

Given the diagram as well as the forecast table (of the best performing model, candidate #3), I conclude that a reduction in unemployment in Greece is expected in the next period of time (in the next six months). More specifically, Greece’s unemployment in February 2023 will range between 10% (9.4%) and 13% (14%) with an 80% (95%) probability (based on ARIMA(9,2,1) model).

Acknowledgements

Image by PublicDomainPictures from Pixabay

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Citation

BibTeX citation:

@online{2022,
  author = {, stesiam},
  title = {Forecasting {Unemployment} in {Greece}},
  date = {2022-10-22},
  url = {https://stesiam.com/posts/forecasting-greek-unemployment/},
  langid = {en}
}

For attribution, please cite this work as:

stesiam. (2022, October 22). Forecasting Unemployment in Greece. Retrieved from https://stesiam.com/posts/forecasting-greek-unemployment/